The Newsletter | Edition 076
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In our Off-White Papers, we provide practical guidance on how to respond to our rapidly-changing world. This newsletter explores those topics in real-time, with information and action steps on how to make progress now.
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IN TODAY'S NEWSLETTER...CYCLICAL CULTUREIt’s said that past trends eventually rear their heads again. If that’s the case, then how can we look to the past to anticipate what’s coming? Can any person — or any brand — develop trend-watching skills? Or have platforms like TikTok, where a multitude of trends coexist at once, debunked the narrative of cyclical culture entirely?
- Find and study subcultures, from José Osmena
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Look backward first, from Harmand Ponder
- Use trends as building blocks, from Justine Deutsch
And this week, our illustrations from Dan Abary.
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WHAT'S NEXT ISN'T WHAT'S NOWFrom José Osmena
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TL;DROftentimes upcoming trends represent a radically different direction from prevailing trends — typically initiated and fuelled by a minority disaffected by prevailing trends, and eventually adopted by others seeking something new that might make their lives better or more interesting.
WHY IT MATTERSDuring the lifetime of a trend, there will be individuals who either reject the trend at the outset or drop it at some point. These people typically adopt something else that either fulfills a need the trend couldn’t or signals an outright rejection of that trend (see: counterculture). When these people find each other, they start a subculture that may draw in people who either find merit in the shared aesthetic or philosophy, or simply want to be part of a brand new movement — and when this happens rapidly, a new trend starts. We’re seeing this today with trends as trivial as wide-leg pants supplanting slim-leg pants, or as consequential as self-care culture supplanting hustle culture.
ONE THING YOU CAN DO RIGHT NOW
Find and study subcultures that depart from the mainstream, and hypothesize how society-at-large might change to increase the influence of these subcultures.
STARTING POINTS
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Immerse in the youth’s mindsets. The youth are typically the first to scrutinize the prevailing culture of older generations. Seeing the world from their perspective may help understand what it is about prevailing culture that doesn’t work, and rationalize the habits and behaviors they adopt in lieu of conforming.
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Explore niche media and networking platforms. People that reject the mainstream don’t likely congregate on mainstream platforms. Find platforms where relatively smaller groups spend their time, and learn about the topics and concerns they build community around.
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Play devil’s advocate. Find things to criticize about trends in mainstream culture, and bring them to light with other people. You’ll eventually find someone who shares the same opposing views (potentially with more fervor and opinions), or be directed to someone who does.
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NOTHING IS NEW From Harmand Ponder
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TL;DRIn the digital era, culture has decentralized and fragmented into an infinite number of micro-cultures. From a reactionary standpoint, trends are futile, and the hyper-consumption of content on social platforms only reinforces the divide between iconic and isolated moments in time.
WHY IT MATTERSThe idea of cyclical culture is supported by today’s slew of trends. Considering the etymology of the word trend is "to rotate or revolve,” you could argue that referencing the past is more productive than homing in on the present. Some say that “Trends Are Dead.” While that may be a can of worms, it also resonates in the age of infinite-scrolling. Whether referencing fashion trends on TikTok, or photographic themes across brands, no idea is ever truly original. This article even includes a list of brands that referenced their former logos instead of following modern trends, further emphasizing the importance of cyclical culture.
ONE THING YOU CAN DO RIGHT NOW
Use cyclical culture to your advantage by trend forecasting and establishing guardrails for what to avoid.
IDEAS
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Archive trends. Keeping record of relative trends that have resurfaced over the years, whether iconic or niche, could be an advantage. We can learn a lot by studying the past in an ever growing digital era.
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Establish new roles. While many roles within the creative and strategic fields involve research around trends already, there may be an opportunity to establish new roles with a more controlled focus around trend forecasting.
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Don’t bother “keeping up.” Trends are often intermittent, and when leaders or brands rely on them for influence it can translate as inauthentic. By regrounding in your brand history, you could be authentic, and stay true to your initial brand vision.
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TREND TIME WARP From Justine Deutsch
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TL;DRWe’ve spun off our axis. According to analysts, TikTok trends run in 90-day cycles with a life span of six months at most. This lightning speed trend cycle across social media has warped the digital monoculture and dissolved our sense of the mainstream. Without a common enemy to rebel against, trends aren’t competing for relevancy in the same way. The great debate, Y2K or indie sleaze, has come to an end. The answer: ¿porque no los dos?
WHY IT MATTERSWell, it depends on who you ask. Millennials have used this shift to freeze time as they pick and stick to their favorite trend cycles. While Gen Z, true to their nihilist spirit, interpreted this to mean that time is meaningless so might as well mix and match. The low stakes of social and the timelessness of trends creates a unique opportunity for brands to experiment, test, and learn.
ONE THING YOU CAN DO RIGHT NOW
Worry less about what’s trending and focus more on what inspires your brand.
TIPS
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Look within. Revisit the trends that inspired your brand’s conception.
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Avoid the trendy trap. Leverage trends to create a cohesive story (vs. a one-off campaign) to extend the lifespan of your marketing.
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Tap into taste communities. While trends represent a moment in time, taste communities are fluid. Zoom out to resonate with multiple audiences at once.
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Test and learn. Borrow from the experimental attitude of the youth and use trends as building blocks of inspiration.
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