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The Newsletter | Edition 069
In our Off-White Papers, we provide practical guidance on how to respond to our rapidly-changing world. This newsletter explores those topics in real-time, with information and action steps on how to make progress now.

IN TODAY'S NEWSLETTER...CRYSTAL BALLS

As humans, we try our best to predict the future because it helps us to deal with uncertainty and prepare for what’s to come. From religion to finance to politics to sports to weather, predictions are central. But many of our predictions turn out to be wrong. So, why do we continue to forecast? Can incorrect predictions still hold value?
  1. Use the past to predict, from Chandler Saunders
  2. Go for the long shot, from Tessa Kalinosky
  3. Tap into evolutionary science, from Eric Ferrer-Vaughn
And this week, our illustrations from Evan Baum.

LOOK BACK BEFORE FORWARD

From Chandler Saunders

TL;DR

What sets humans apart from other less-developed species is our ability to learn, however, we have also developed a startling ability to forget. In order to rely on predictions of the future we must first turn back to our past.

WHY IT MATTERS

History provides us an opportunity to learn from and take advantage of our past transgressions. However, for some reason, we continually forget (or consciously ignore) our mistakes. We believe things to be different in the present due to the change in time, the ever-increasing pace of innovation, or other external forces that may seem unique at the moment. But if we take a minute to analyze the opportunity or challenge at hand we will rarely find that it is the first of its kind. In order to better understand what can be achieved in the future it is paramount that we not only understand our past, but make a conscious effort to do better.

ONE THING YOU CAN DO RIGHT NOW

Before developing a future strategy, product, or initiative, look to your most recent endeavor.

THOUGHTS

  • We often think that we only learn from our mistakes, but look back at your successes with the same critical eye.
  • When looking back for similar scenarios don't be put off if it doesn't seem like the same problem—oftentimes there are more similarities than appearances let on.
  • Don't box yourself in by only looking at your own past. Look to others, as well, whether it be the same industry or not. The same problems and solutions can manifest in different ways.
“Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it.” - George Santayana

RISKY FUTURES ARE THE MOST EXCITING

From Tessa Kalinosky

TL;DR

It’s easy to predict things that will probably happen, but the really exciting stuff is predicting a future that is only a glimmer on the horizon.

WHY IT MATTERS

In A Short History of Predicting the Future, John Herrman asks what we risk in being wrong about the future. While it’s easy, comforting even, to think about the future that’s close at hand, the future that’s far away is the one that’s going to impact you the most and can lead to the most beneficial change, even in the short term. Trying and failing to get to that far off future still gets you closer to it than doing nothing at all. You have to be willing to risk being wrong to think about the far off future, but it’s where the magic can happen, even if it only tells you about what you are hoping for in the present.

ONE THING YOU CAN DO RIGHT NOW

Take one small, imperfect step towards the most exciting future you can imagine.

STEPS

  • Write down the future you imagine and want to aim for.
  • Summarize it in one sentence.
  • Summarize it in one word.
  • Do one small thing to move the needle towards that sentence or word.

THE EVOLUTIONARY POTENTIAL OF THE PRESENT

From Eric Ferrer-Vaughn

TL;DR

Evolutionary potential is the capacity to adapt in response to environmental change. The complex systems we try to forecast are explicitly characterized by their unpredictability and capacity to self-organize. Yet, forecasting views reality as a deterministic machine where every person follows the same exact heuristics, which leads to an unintentional blindness to how the world actually works.

WHY IT MATTERS

The culture around business forecasting reinforces forecasters as experts and the community as powerless actors. Any action in a complex system, including forecasting, changes said system. The “future” then becomes a form of power to wield over others instead of an opportunity for collaboration that the “present” holds. If human systems are more like ecologies, you have to leverage evolutionary science approaches not macro-economics.


ONE THING YOU CAN DO RIGHT NOW

Co-design with your stakeholders in the present to create a future that benefits all.

PROBES NOT SOLUTIONS

Complex systems are defined by their randomness and their resistance to top down control. If you have to let go of goals and solutions, you can rely on these simple steps to make change in a complex system:
  • Is there any place in a complex system that you can influence?
  • If so, can you monitor and measure the outcomes of the actions you take?
  • Create safe to fail experiments where you can amplify successes and dampen failures.

ONE MORE THING: A PLAYLIST

From Les Jacobs
LISTEN IN
SYLVAIN's resident DJ starts all of our Monday "Lab Report" stand-up meetings with a song or two, alongside a detailed history of the choices. And this week he's created a curated playlist just for Progress Report readers, capturing the mood of the moment. Listen to the playlist here.

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